The third Ashes Test between England and Australia begins on Thursday at Headingley, with the hosts facing a must-win situation to keep their hopes of regaining the urn alive. Australia lead the series 2-0 after a controversial victory at Lord’s, where Jonny Bairstow was stumped in a contentious manner on the final day. England have made three changes to their line-up, while Australia have also shuffled their pack. Here is a preview of what to expect from the crucial clash in Leeds.
The toss and the pitch
England captain Ben Stokes won the toss and opted to bowl first, hoping to exploit the overcast conditions and the green-tinged pitch at Headingley. The venue has traditionally favored seam bowlers, with an average of 25.77 runs per wicket for pacers compared to 38.76 for spinners in Tests since 2000. However, the pitch is also known to be good for batting once it settles down, and the weather forecast suggests that there will be some sunny spells later in the match.
The teams and the tactics
England has brought in Mark Wood, Chris Woakes, and Moeen Ali for Ollie Pope, Josh Tongue, and James Anderson. Wood adds some extra pace and bounce to the attack, while Woakes and Moeen offer more depth and balance to the batting order. Harry Brook has been promoted to number three, with Jonny Bairstow moving up to number five. England will hope that their top order can provide a solid platform for their middle order, which includes four all-rounders in Stokes, Bairstow, Woakes, and Moeen.
Australia has also made three changes, with Mitchell Marsh, Todd Murphy, and Scott Boland replacing Travis Head, Nathan Lyon and Pat Cummins. Marsh adds some seam bowling options to the side, while Murphy is a left-arm spinner who can trouble England’s right-handers. Boland is a late replacement for Cummins, who suffered a back injury on the eve of the match. Boland is a consistent performer in domestic cricket but will be making his Test debut at the age of 32.
Australia will rely on their top order to score heavily, with David Warner, Marcus Harris, Marnus Labuschagne, and Steve Smith forming a formidable quartet. They will also hope that their pace attack of Boland, Mitchell Starc, and Josh Hazlewood can exploit the conditions and put pressure on England’s batsmen.
The key players and the stats
- Joe Root: The England captain has been in sublime form in this series, scoring 386 runs at an average of 96.50 with two centuries and two fifties. He is the leading run-scorer in Tests in 2023, with 1,089 runs at an average of 77.78 with four hundred and six fifties. He has also scored more runs at Headingley than any other batsman in Tests, with 1,019 runs at an average of 67.93 with four hundred and five fifties.
- Steve Smith: The Australia star has been equally prolific in this series, scoring 378 runs at an average of 94.50 with one century and three fifties. He is second only to Root in the list of leading run-scorers in Tests in 2023, with 1,046 runs at an average of 87.16 with four hundred and four fifties. He has also scored more runs against England than any other batsman in Tests, with 2,948 runs at an average of 61.41 with 11 hundred and 13 fifties.
- Mark Wood: The England fast bowler has been recalled for this match after missing the first two Tests with injuries. He has a good record against Australia in Tests, taking 21 wickets at an average of 25.76 with one five-wicket haul. He also has a strike rate of 42.9 against them, which is better than any other England bowler who has taken more than 10 wickets against Australia in Tests.
- Mitchell Starc: The Australia left-arm pacer has been impressive in this series, taking 14 wickets at an average of 18.07 with one five-wicket haul. He is the leading wicket-taker in Tests in 2023, with 38 wickets at an average of 18.63 with three five-wicket hauls. He also has a strike rate of 36.6 in Tests in 2023, which is better than any other bowler who has taken more than 10 wickets in Tests this year.
The head-to-head and the history
- England and Australia have played 357 Tests against each other, with Australia winning 149, England winning 111 and 97 ending in draws.
- At Headingley, they have played 25 Tests, with England winning nine, Australia winning seven and nine ending in draws.
- The last time they played at Headingley was in 2019, when England pulled off a stunning one-wicket win thanks to Ben Stokes’ unbeaten 135. That was the only time that a team has chased more than 300 to win a Test at Headingley.
- The highest total at Headingley is 653-4 declared by Australia in 1993, while the lowest is 61 by West Indies in 2000.
- The highest individual score at Headingley is 334 by Don Bradman in 1930, while the best bowling figures are 8-43 by Fred Trueman in 1952.
The prediction and the odds
The third Ashes Test is expected to be a close contest, with both teams having their strengths and weaknesses. England will be desperate to bounce back from their Lord’s defeat, while Australia will be keen to seal the series with a win. The toss could play a crucial role, as the pitch and the weather could change over the course of the match. The odds are slightly in favor of Australia, who have shown more consistency and resilience in this series.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| England | 2.75 |
| Australia | 2.25 |
| Draw | 3.50 |
Source: Bet365
